Analysis of Inundation Area as the Impact of Sea Level Rise in Padang City, West Sumatera

Abstract

Coastal areas have a high potential for natural resources, but the intensity of their utilization often leads to physical environmental changes. One of the significant impacts is land subsidence and sea level rise, which trigger tidal flooding (rob floods). This study aims to determine the rate of sea level rise from 2014 to 2023 using tidal data analysis and to predict inundation areas for 2033, 2043, and 2053. This study was carried out in July 2024 in the coastal region of Padang City, West Sumatra Province. The research method is a survey, with a remote sensing approach and direct field observation (ground checks) to verify the accuracy of the spatial data. The study results indicate that Padang City exhibits a mixed tide, predominantly semidiurnal, with a Formzahl value of 0,41. The sea level is rising at a rate of 1,56 cm per year. The value was applied to predict sea level rise for 2033, 2043, and 2053, resulting in estimated increases of 0,156 m, 0,312 m, and 0.468 m, respectively. Subsequently, the projected sea level heights were analyzed to determine the extent of inundated areas for each respective year, and the results show that the inundated areas would reach 150,81 hectares, 161,51 hectares, and 172,37 hectares. This trend suggests that, as time progresses, the extent of areas affected by tidal flooding (rob) will continue to expand, potentially disrupting economic activities, damaging infrastructure, and impacting the social fabric of coastal communities