Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Harga Beras di Provinsi Riau

Abstract

Rice is a staple food commodity that is very important to meet food needs in Riau Province. Over the last 13 years or from 2011 to 2023, the price of rice in Riau Province has experienced an increasing trend. This research aims to 1) Find out and analyze the factors that influence the price of rice in Riau Province and, 2) Analyze the factors that have a dominant influence on the price of rice in Riau Province. The research was conducted in Riau Province from April to September 2024, using annual time series data from 2011 to 2023. The two objectives of this research were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis. The independent variables used include the real price of regional rice suppliers, the real price of dry rice harvested in Riau, rice consumption, and population. The research results show that the real price of rice in the supplier area, rice consumption, and population have a significant effect on the real price of Riau rice, with rice consumption as the most dominant factor. On the other hand, the real price of harvested dry grain does not have a significant influence on the real price of Riau rice. The coefficient of determination (R²) in this model shows that 95,7 percent of the variation in rice prices can be explained by these variables, which confirms the combined influence of these factors. This research emphasizes the importance of stabilizing rice distribution and promoting food diversification to reduce price volatility and increase food security at the regional level.